Transition in Afghanistan: Future Scenarios

The emerging situation in Afghanistan will have an indelible impact on the region and has great relevance for India. Afghanistan is a relatively young nation state. The establishment of the Hotaki Dynasty in the eighteenth century, marked for the first time, the beginning of the creation of the Afghan state as also its armed forces. Numerous invaders across the centuries have exploited the peculiar geographical vulnerability of Afghanistan to establish and expand their own empires. The passes over the Hindu Kush Mountains gave access to the region, giving the land the moniker 'Central Asian Roundabout'. The Medes conquered the land, followed by Alexander the Great and then in succession came the Sakas, Parthians, Kushans and Sassanids. The Sassanian Empire constituted the last great Iranian empire before the Muslim conquest and the adoption of Islam. The Islamic conquest of Afghanistan (642-714) began in the middle of the seventh century; the Islamic conquest of Persia was completed when Arab Muslims defeated the Sassanid Empire at the battles of Walaja, al-Qādisiyyah and Nahavand. Pockets of tribal resistance however continued for centuries in the Afghan territories. Part of the region was ruled by the Turkic Buddhist/Hindu dynasty called the Kabul Shahis since the fifth century AD and the Arabs were unable to succeed in converting the population of that area because of constant revolts from the mountain tribes. The complete conversion of Afghanistan to Islam was during the period of the Ghaznavids, in or about the 11th century. The Ghaznavids were followed by the Ghorids and thereafter by the Mongols who ruled for over a century (1258-1353). The Timurids and the Mughals followed, ruling parts of this land till the early part of the 18th century. The region thus has been at the centre of great power rivalry and the situation is no different today. The Great game played between Britain and Russia gave way in the modern age to cold war rivalries between the United States and the Soviet Union. An understanding of history then is also important to see the consequences of conflict in this part of the world and the role that the world’s major powers will have to play if the region is to return to peace.